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공격력으로 추정한 NPB의 역대 포지션별 수비 난이도

npbstats 7,068 Comments

 

포지션별 수비 난이도를 추정하는 방법 중에 공격력으로 추정하는 방법이 있습니다. 유격수처럼 높은 수비력을 요구하는 포지션은 공격력이 낮더라도 기용이 됩니다. 즉 낮은 공격력을 수비로 만회할 수 있습니다. 반대로 좌익수나 1루수처럼 높은 공격력을 요구하는 포지션은 수비력이 낮더라도 기용됩니다. 만약 모든 포지션에 재능이 골고루 분포한다면 공격력+수비력이 비슷할 것입니다. 이러한 논리로 공격력이 높은 포지션은 그만큼 수비력이 낮고 공격력이 낮은 포지션은 그만큼 수비력이 높다고 보는 것입니다.

 

포지션별 공격력 비교 방법

각 포지션에서 선수가 기록한 공격 기여도를 합산합니다.

공격기여도 = 타격기여도 + 주루기여도

타격기여도 = Rbat(타격득점. 파크팩터 조정하고 투수 제외한 wRAA)

주루기여도 =  Rsb(도루득점) + Rdp(병살회피득점) +Radv(진루득점)

여러 포지션에서 뛴 선수의 경우 수비이닝에 따라 배분합니다. 만약 어떤 선수가 중견수로 300이닝, 우익수로 700이닝을 뛰었다면 기여도를 중견수로 30%, 우익수로 70% 나눕니다.  이렇게 모든 선수의 포지션별 공격 기여도를 합산하고 표본 크기를 늘리기 위해 10년단위로 묶습니다. 1리그 시대였던 1930~1940년대는 경기수가 적었기 때문에 같이 묶었습니다.  143경기(약600타석)당 공격기여도가 1승이라면 수비 난이도는 그 반대인 -1승이 됩니다.

 

공격력으로 추정한 NPB의 수비 난이도

년대 포 일 이 삼 유 좌 중 우 지
1930~1940 1.28 -0.51 0.43 0.32 0.64 -0.40 -1.31 -0.45
1950 1.65 -0.46 0.54 -0.32 0.37 -0.44 -0.77 -0.58
1960 1.70 -1.27 0.78 -0.20 0.75 -0.96 -0.79 -0.01
1970 1.48 -1.63 0.48 0.04 1.52 -0.85 -0.68 -0.36 -0.57
1980 2.04 -1.36 0.21 -0.70 0.79 -0.14 -0.39 -0.44 -1.45
1990 1.75 -0.97 0.27 -0.24 0.41 -0.35 -0.42 -0.44 -1.40
2000 1.85 -1.25 0.91 -0.46 0.51 -0.80 -0.36 -0.40 -0.96
2010 2.21 -0.59 0.21 -0.09 0.43 -0.81 -0.87 -0.50 -0.74
2020
Total 1.77 -0.99 0.47 -0.23 0.67 -0.62 -0.69 -0.39 -1.06

통산 조정값을 보면 포수>유격수>2루수>3루수>우익수>좌익수>중견수>1루수>지명타자의 순서입니다. 포수는 공격력이 크게 낮고 그 다음으로 낮은 유격수와 비교해도 1승 이상의 차이가 있습니다. 내야수는 일반적인 인식대로 유격수>2루수>3루수>1루수의 순서이지만 외야수는 일반적으로 인식되는 수비 난이도와는 큰 차이를 보이고 있습니다. 중견수는 코너외야수보다 수비가 어려운 포지션이라는게 정설이지만 공격력으로 추정한 수비 난이도는 중견수가 좌익수보다도 쉽다는 것으로 나왔습니다.  중견수는 코너외야수보다 넓은 수비범위를 커버해야 하기 때문에 높은 주력이 요구됩니다.  타격능력으로만 한정한다면 일본프로야구에서도 중견수가 코너외야수보다 못하지만 주루까지 감안한 공격력은 코너 외야수 못지 않습니다. 따라서 공격력만으로 중견수의 수비 난이도가 코너외야수보다 쉽다고 보기는 어렵습니다.

년대별로 본다면 10년치씩 년대별로 묶었는데도 상당한 변동이 있습니다. 1루수의 조정값을 보면 2000년대에 -1.23승이었다가 2010년대에 -0.56승으로 급감하고 있습니다. 이런 현상이 나타나는 이유는 표본이 충분하지 않기 때문으로 보입니다. NPB는 팀수와 경기수가 적기 때문에 10년치라고 해도 MLB 기준으로는 3~4년치의 표본에 불과합니다. 그렇다면 표본을 늘려야 하는데 기간이 너무 길면 당시의 수비 난이도와는 괴리가 커진다는 문제가 있습니다. 20년치를 사용한다고 하면 2010년대의 수비 난이도를 구하기 위해 2000년대의 데이터도 사용해야합니다. 그래서 기간을 늘리기 보다는 10년치와 NPB통산 조정값을 평균하는 방법을 썼습니다.

 

공격력으로 추정한 NPB의 수비 난이도 (년대별 조정값을 통산으로 50% 회귀)

년대 포 일 이 삼 유 좌 중 우 지
1930~1940 1.52 -0.75 0.45 0.05 0.66 -0.51 -1.00 -0.42
1950 1.71 -0.72 0.51 -0.27 0.52 -0.53 -0.73 -0.48
1960 1.73 -1.13 0.63 -0.21 0.71 -0.79 -0.74 -0.20
1970 1.63 -1.31 0.48 -0.09 1.10 -0.73 -0.69 -0.38 -0.82
1980 1.90 -1.17 0.34 -0.47 0.73 -0.38 -0.54 -0.42 -1.25
1990 1.76 -0.98 0.37 -0.23 0.54 -0.48 -0.55 -0.42 -1.23
2000 1.81 -1.12 0.69 -0.34 0.59 -0.71 -0.52 -0.40 -1.01
2010 1.99 -0.79 0.34 -0.16 0.55 -0.72 -0.78 -0.44 -0.90
2020
Total 1.77 -0.99 0.47 -0.23 0.67 -0.62 -0.69 -0.39 -1.06

 

 

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