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守備力と推定したNPBの歴代ポジション別守備難易度

npbstats 1,563 Comments

過去の守備難易度推定方法

現在、日本プロ野球 の最も優れた守備指標はUZR（Ultimate Zone Rating）ですが、集計が始まってから古くなっていないため、過去の分析は不可能です。

MLBもUZR、DRS(Defensive Runs Saved)は2000年代以降存在し、それ以前はTZ(Total Zone)を利用して守備難易度を推定しています。Baseball Referenceで提示した過去の守備難易度を見ると最近と違いがあります。 19世紀までさかのぼると中堅手とコーナー外野手の差がほとんどなく、一塁手も守備が容易なポジションではありませんでした。

NPBも過去の守備難易度が現在と似ているかどうかはわかりません。過去のUZRはありませんが、代わりにFS（Fielding Share）を利用して過去にも守備難易度推定が可能です。 守備難易度を推定した方法については、守備力と推定した最近日本プロ野球のポジション別守備難易度をご覧ください。

 

FSと推定したNPBの年代別守備難易度

年代 一 二 三 遊 左 中 右
1930~1940 -1.23 0.57 0.78 1.25 -0.70 0.17 -0.83
1950 -1.08 0.91 0.70 1.36 -1.01 -0.02 -0.87
1960 -1.00 0.95 0.71 1.28 -1.29 0.19 -0.84
1970 -0.54 0.08 0.43 0.34 -0.57 0.64 -0.38
1980 -0.74 -0.09 -0.18 0.76 -0.49 0.74 -0.01
1990 -1.19 -0.13 -0.08 0.91 -0.46 0.84 0.11
2000 -1.17 0.24 -0.53 0.83 -0.31 0.72 0.23
2010 -1.00 0.45 -0.50 0.90 -0.50 0.71 -0.07
2020
Total -0.98 0.23 -0.06 0.73 -0.48 0.69 -0.13

単位を得点から勝利基準に換算したのです。毎年少しずつ違いはありますが、日本プロ野球は9点が1勝の価値があります。 2020年代は標本が小さすぎたため省略しましたが、通算には反映されました。 10年ずつ束ねても変動が大きいのは標本が足りないからです。その場合、期間を増やす方法もありますが、それよりも通算値と平均する方法を使用しました。

 

FSと推定したNPBの年代別守備難易度 (通算で50%回帰)

年代 一 二 三 遊 左 中 右
1930~1940 -1.11 0.40 0.36 0.99 -0.59 0.43 -0.48
1950 -1.03 0.57 0.32 1.05 -0.75 0.33 -0.50
1960 -0.99 0.59 0.32 1.01 -0.89 0.44 -0.48
1970 -0.76 0.16 0.18 0.54 -0.52 0.67 -0.25
1980 -0.86 0.07 -0.12 0.75 -0.48 0.71 -0.07
1990 -1.09 0.05 -0.07 0.82 -0.47 0.76 -0.01
2000 -1.08 0.24 -0.30 0.78 -0.40 0.70 0.05
2010 -0.99 0.34 -0.28 0.82 -0.49 0.70 -0.10
2020
Total -0.98 0.23 -0.06 0.73 -0.48 0.69 -0.13

難易度は難しい順で遊撃手、中堅手>二塁手>三塁手、右翼手>左翼手>一塁手順です。一般的な認識と比較すると、外野手が高評価されていますが、取っ手の問題は考慮されていないためです。 1塁手を除く内野手は左利きが送球動作をする際に大きく不利なので左利きを使わない。したがって、左利きの外野手は一塁を除く内野を守備することはほとんど不可能です。そのため、取っ手の問題を考慮すると、内野手の評価は高くなり、外野手の評価は低くなります。

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